"Part of the discussion is, who would you least want to be matched-up with, who would you least want to play. And, I think that's always part of how we maybe try and break our ties or break the stalemate is to use some variable that brings it down to an on the field issue of, you know from a competitive standpoint, of these teams, who are you least gonna wanna play."
- NCAA Selection Committee Chairman, Tim Weiser, in on the ESPN selection show about how teams were picked in the NCAA Tournament at-large selection process.
So that's Weiser's justification for adding teams like Baylor and Oklahoma State, and apparently George Mason and Western Kentucky to this year's NCAA field, while leaving teams like Rhode Island, Notre Dame and Western Carolina behind.
I'm still looking through the NCAA Division I Championship Handbook for the part that says "who would you least want to play" is part of the selection process. Help me if you ever actually find it.
About 30 minutes before the selections were announced Monday, I posted a list of 20 bubble teams on this blog. I thought that half of the teams on the list would probably get bids. Turns out, 12 of those teams landed in this year's tournament field.
As a refresher, the list includes team, followed by : RPI, wins vs. RPI top-50 teams, overall Divsion I record, record over last 15 games, and strength of schedule. Here's the list:
ELON 20, 5, (40-16), (12-4), 52
BOSTON COLLEGE 29, 9 (33-24), (8-7), 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 25, 10, (31-22), (8-7), 11
TEXAS STATE 30, 3, (41-15), (12-3), 28
BAYLOR 31, 11, (29-24), (4-11), 7
AUBURN 32, 12 (31-25), (6-9), 9
DALLAS BAPTIST 39, 5, (38-17), (9-6), 103
GEORGE MASON 40, 0, (42-12), (11-4), 196
FLORIDA GULF COAST 41, 3 (36-18), (13-2), 84
OREGON STATE 42, 5, (35-17), (10-5), 93
WASHINGTON STATE 44, 6 (31-23), (10-5), 29
CAL POLY 45, 3, (37-19), (7-8), 89
SAN DIEGO STATE 50, 3, (40-21), (11-4), 90
KANSAS 53, 15, (35-22), (8-7), 65
WESTERN KENTUCKY 45, 1, (37-18), (9-6), 105
NOTRE DAME 47, 5, (35-23), (11-4), 47
RHODE ISLAND 57, 3, (37-20), (8-7), 104
KENTUCKY 50, 9, (27-26), (7-8), 13
WESTERN CAROLINA 54, 2, (35-22), (10-5), 66
A quick look at some of the criteria (from the NCAA Handbook) the committee is supposed to consider: "The committee may consider comparing data of individual teams, including, but not limited to, overall record, Division I record, overall RPI rank, nonconference record and RPI rank, conference regular-season record and conference tournament results, road record and RPI, last 15 games' record, its record against teams ranked 1-25, 26-50, 51-100, 101-150 and below 150 in the RPI, head-to-head record, common opponents' record and input from regional advisory committees." -
It's pretty clear that RPI played a huge role in what teams were picked and what teams were not. While strength of schedule is not specified in any of the criteria, it is a factor.
I have no problem taking a good team in a power conference, but does Baylor really meet that standard? My own definition of a "good" team in a power conference would be 30 overall wins and at least a .500 conference record. Neither Baylor (29-24, 10-16) nor Oklahoma State (32-22, 9-16) met that minimal mark. Baylor's record over its last 15 games is listed above, and OSU couldn't win a Big 12 series, so if we're rewarding sub-mediocrity in a good conference, why isn't Texas Tech, which finished ahead of both of those teams in the Big 12 standings, in the tournament?
Who would you least want to play? Ask Kansas State, which lost two of three games at home to the Red Raiders in the second to last week of the regular season. Tech handed A.J. Morris (13-1, 1.84 ERA) his only loss of 2009 to date. Who would you least want to play?
So, what about George Mason? Nice RPI at 40, but wake me up when they get their first win over a top-50 team. (Call me Rumpelstiltskin.) Yes, they had 42 wins, but a strength of schedule of 196 that would even make Virginia's Brian O'Connor wince...really. (I know, I know, the Cavs play in the ACC, and I defended their non-conference schedule in a post earlier this year.)
Mason can mash the ball, but what's the Patriots' signature win? North Carolina State and a 3-game sweep of Army? They have losses to Maryland and Connecticut.
Western Kentucky's 39-win season is the program's best in the last 90 years, but the Hilltoppers have a 105 SOS, and their best win is over a Kentucky team that finished a game over .500. At least they played Louisville twice and Vanderbilt, but they lost all three of those games.
Rhode Island finished 11 RPI spots below W. Kentucky, but had three, count 'em three wins over RPI top-50 teams, even if their strength of schedule was only slightly better at 104. URI beat Miami, not Miami, OH...the Miami Hurricanes in Florida, as well as tourney teams Ohio State and Oklahoma State, and they played Cal State Fullerton twice.
Not only did Notre Dame play a tougher schedule than George Mason, Western Kentucky and Rhode Island, they have more top-50 wins (5) than all three of those teams combined. The Irish have wins over #1 Regional seed Louisville, #2 seed Oral Roberts and #3 seed Washington State. All of those wins came either on the road or at a neutral site.
The biggest knock against ND appears to be their fifth-place finish in the Big East standing. However, they won their series vs. the four teams that finished ahead of them in the conference standings (Louisville, USF, WVU, St. John's). The Big East also plays an unbalanced schedule, and Notre Dame was the only Big East team to play all seven other teams that qualified for the conference tournament. The two teams they didn't play (Rutgers and Georgetown) combined to win 16 BE games.
Western Carolina's resume is even more impressive than either George Mason or Western Kentucky. The strength of schedule is 66, and the Catamounts have two wins over top-50 teams, including a Georgia Tech squad that's a #1 Regional host team.
Western Carolina and Notre Dame's combined strength of schedule (47 + 66=113) is just slightly higher than Western Kentucky's 105.
I just hit my snooze alarm, Baylor has four wins since April 17th, and George Mason is still looking for it's first win over a top-50 team since before Charlie died on LOST. (It's been a while...2007 in fact.)
Well, who would you least want to play?
No comments:
Post a Comment