Helllo CB360 site visitors. This is Pete LaFleur, checking back into the CB360 blog. I've spent the past few weeks focusing on the site's text/e-mail blast service and our unique Aggregate National Ratings (ANR). If you have not checked out either of these features, you might want to see what's available via these services (simply click on the top-menu links on the CB360 main page). We are offering numerous options to help you track the college baseball postseason via texts/e-mail blasts. You can hand-pick your selections - or even opt for our Twitter service (currently via cb360updates; more details coming soon). As far as the ANR goes, it will be interesting to see how accurate this formula - comprising 14 expert "ingredients," ranging from five polls to various RPI-type calculations and tournament-field projections - proves to be, when compared with the NCAA field-of-64. Anyway, on to some analysis of the past weekend...
Over the past few days, it has seemed like more college baseball teams (both top-25 and those on the "bubble") have failed to make that key needed statement - with the majority of those squads instead suffering some tough losses during the weekend series. This is an important time of the season, as these games not only affect the usual standings in the polls and RPI – this past weekend's results also help finalize conference regular-season standings, set up teams for seeding/success in conference tournaments, and even factor into the "last-10-games" criteria that is part of the NCAA selection criteria. It's also a tense time for the elite programs that are positioning for spots as the top-8/top-16 seeds, so it's possible that one or two games could (conceivably) be the difference in where a team ends up in the NCAA seedings.
Among the top-25 teams in the NCBWA writers poll, 21 of them were in action this past weekend vs. a lower-ranked team. Only three of those teams – #2 UC Irvine (vs. UOP), #5 Arizona State (vs. Winthrop) and #23 Coastal Carolina (vs. VMI) – managed to sweep their three-game series, with the other 18 losing at least one game during the weekend vs. a lower-seeded team. #11 Arkansas dropped all three games at Alabama, while seven other teams lost their series (1 game to 2): #1 UNC (at N.C. State), #7 Mississippi (vs. Mississippi State), #9 Florida State (a minor upset, at #10 Georgia Tech), #13 Georgia (vs. Vanderbilt), #15 Miami (vs. Bethune-Cookman), #21 Kansas State (vs. Texas Tech) and #24 Oregon State (at Washington). Of the opponents on this list, Georgia Tech is the only lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, while Vanderbilt is on the bubble and Bethune-Cookman is favored to win the MEAC Tournament (and thus get an automatic NCAA berth).
That leaves 10 more top-25 teams that lost one game over the weekend: #3 Rice (vs. UCF), #4 LSU (vs. #12 Florida), #6 Fullerton (vs. #19 Cal Poly), #8 Texas (vs. #16 Texas A&M), #14 Virginia (vs. Duke), #17 Oklahoma (vs. Oklahoma State), #18 TCU (vs. Utah), #20 Clemson (vs. UNC Wilmington), #22 East Carolina (vs. Houston) and #25 Ohio State (vs. Illinois). Some of these opponents - Cal Poly, A&M, Oklahoma State and Illinois - are potential NCAA entrants, but UCF, Duke, Utah, UNCW and Houston likely will not be in the field-of-64.
In the 63 games over the weekend (Fri.-Sun.) featuring at least one top-25 team from the writer's poll, the higher-ranked team won only 57% of the time (36 wins, 27 losses).
Among teams that appear to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble (in terms of their at-large prospects), several put those NCAA postseason hopes at risk. Most notably: fading San Diego went 1-2 vs. visiting San Francisco; Hawaii managed only a split of four games at Fresno State; homestanding New Mexico state won only 1-of-4 vs. San Jose State; South Florida lost 2-of-3 at Notre Dame; UC Riverside won only once at UC Davis; Kent State went 1-2 vs. visiting Akron; USC lost both games at CS Northridge; Auburn was 1-2 at Kentucky (as was New Mexico at Stanford); and Rhode Island went 1-2 at UMass. Of course, some of these teams still could gain entry into the NCAAs by winning their conference tournaments – but their at-large prospects seem to be in doubt at this point.
A handful of bubble teams did emerge from the weekend with some positives (albeit, for some, vs. low-rated opponents), among them: Louisville (2-1 at St. John's); College of Charleston (3-0 at Wofford); Vanderbilt (2-1 at #13 Georgia), Washington State (3-0 at Oregon), Indiana State (3-0 vs. Evansville) and BYU (3-0 vs. UNLV).
With so much inconsistency (or parity, depending on your own interpretation) throughout college baseball, it's possible that 2009 could be a big year for upsets in the NCAAs. Several of the #9-#16 seeds will be more than capable of winning a Super-Regional series on the road – and there certainly could be a College World Series entry (or two) from outside the top-16 seeds.
Here's a look at the top teams in the nation that appear to have the best shot at being the #1 overall seed (or, at least, in the top-4):
NORTH CAROLINA (#1 in writers poll; #1 in CB360's aggregate national ratings/ANR)
1-2 over the weekend, at N.C. State (0-3, 5-2, 4-9)
Heading into this week, UNC appeared to be the odds-on favorite for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, due to playing in a strong and deep conference yet having a favorable schedule over the final nine games of the regular season ("sweepable" ACC series at NC State and BC, plus three midweek games ). The Tar Heels beat Elon (a likely NCAA entrant) in a 15-6 midweek game, but Longwood nearly upset UNC two days later (in a 5-4, 12-inning thriller). UNC took its 37-10 record to Raleigh, for the series vs. a 21-27 Wolfpack team, but their in-state rivals won game-1 (3-0) and the series finale (9-4; UNC won game-2, by a 5-2 score). As a result, the ACC Coastal Division regular-season title still is up-for-grabs – with UNC (18-8-0) holding a narrow lead over Georgia Tech (16-8-1; final series at Duke) and Virginia (15-9-1; finish at Virginia Tech). Barring a total collapse, the Tar Heels likely still will earn a top-8 seed – but they need to get back on the winning track in the upcoming week (vs. Charlotte and in the series at Boston College) in order to remain in the running for the #1 seed ... of course, their showing in the ACC Tournament will provide the final factor for UNC's seeding in the NCAAs.
UC IRVINE (#2 in writers poll and CB360 ANR)
3-0 at the University of the Pacific (11-6, 5-4, 6-5)
The Anteaters – who swept at UOP, thanks to a pair of one-run wins – should hold down the #1 spot in most (if not all) of the updated national polls, and CB360 expects UCI to make a return to the #1 spot in its Aggregate National Ratings (Mike Gillespie's squad was #1 in the April 22 ANR update, then slipped to 4th in late-April before jumping back to #2 last week). Unlike some of the other top teams (namely UNC, Rice, LSU and Texas), Irvine does not have to "worry" about the two-edged-sword nature of a conference tournament (the Big West, along with the Pac-10, do not sponsor postseason conference tournaments). While winning a conference tournament certainly can boost a team's NCAA seeding, many coaches of top teams/regular-season champs might prefer to just stand pat on the strengths of their regular-season "body of work." Although not yet announced on the Big West or UCI websites, it appears that Irvine already has secured the Big West's automatic bid for the NCAAs – thanks to a 17-1 record in conference play (also 37-11 overall). UCI very well could sweep its final eight regular-season games, with five of those matchups coming vs. teams that have been a disappointment this season (but have the talent to knock off the Anteaters): San Diego and UCLA in successive Tuesday games, plus a series at UC Santa Barbara. Irvine also will play next weekend at home vs. a UC Davis team that has posted only three Big West wins this season. Despite entering this past week ranked #7 in the official NCAA RPI – behind UNC, Fullerton, Georgia Tech, Texas, Rice and Miami – UCI ultimately should make a strong case for being seeded in the top-4 (and possibly #1).
RICE (#3 in writers poll and ANR)
2-1 vs. Central Florida (0-5, 10-2, 8-7)
The Owls rallied in the late innings on Sunday to win game-3 (and take the series) from UCF, but Rice also lost earlier in the week to a potential NCAA Tournament team (4-1, vs. Texas State). With East Carolina being the only other Conference USA team with the at-large credentials to make the NCAAs, Rice's closing strength-of-schedule likely will trail that of the nation's other top teams over the next two weeks (the Owls play midweek at Louisiana-Lafayette, followed by a series at UAB and then the CUSA Tournament). It will be interesting to see how much Rice's two losses this week end up dropping the Owls in the polls and the ANR. Look for the Owls to land somewhere in the #4-#6 range in the upcoming APR update – but Rice should end up being a top-8 NCAA seed (assuming a top-2 finish in the CUSA Tournament, which is highly likely for a program that has dominated that postseason event). Rice (15-6) actually still has some work left to clinch the CUSA regular-season title, as ECU (14-7) is one game back in the standings (the Pirates okay host to Memphis next weekend).
ARIZONA STATE (#5 in writers poll and ANR)
3-0 vs. Winthrop (14-3, 10-9, 5-0)
The Sun Devils survived a scare in game-2, but Pat Murphy's squad completed the sweep of the Big South Conference's third-place team Winthrop. A few days earlier, ASU battled through a pair of midweek games (8-7/in 11, 7-6) versus a San Diego team that is scrambling to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. It's been a strange year in the Pac-10 – witness the fact that the league's only other solid NCAA candidate (Oregon State) dropped two at Washington this weekend – and the Sun Devils should be able to close strong, with a home series vs. last-place Oregon, a midweek game at Arizona (non-league) and another home series (vs. UCLA). ASU should be firmly in the mix for a top-4 NCAA seed.
CAL STATE FULLERTON (#4 in writers poll; #4 in ANR)
2-1 at #19 Cal Poly (8-4, 7-3, 4-7)
The Titans nearly went 5-0 this week, with a pair of midweek wins over Arizona (5-2, 8-4) and the series win at top-20 foe Cal Poly. Fullerton steps out of conference next weekend (vs. UCLA; one at home/two on road), followed by a midweek home game vs. Pepperdine and then a home Big West series vs. Long Beach State. All seven of CSF's closing games are vs. programs that are accustomed to playing in the NCAAs (and/or talented enough to contend for an NCAA spot) – but the Titans should be able to stay focused on finishing strong. This week's loss to Cal Poly is a minor blip on Fullerton's bid for a top-4 seed, but that fate may depend more on what UNC, Rice, LSU and Texas do in their conference tournaments.
LOUISIANA STATE (#4 in writer's poll; #8 in ANR)
2-1 vs. #12 Florida (10-1, 4-0, 3-9)
The Tigers have spent several weeks as a #1-ranked team this season – and nobody should fault Paul Mainieri's team for losing the series finale to surging Florida. LSU has a midweek home game vs. Centenary and then will finish the regular-season at SEC Western Division cellar dweller Mississippi State. Similar to UNC and Rice, LSU has yet to lock up its conference regular-season title. The Tigers are 18-9 in the SEC Western Division, followed closely by Alabama (17-9; play next week at Auburn) – fresh of its sweep of Arkansas – and Mississippi (17-10; finish with series at Arkansas). It also would be a nice feather in its cap for LSU to finish with the top overall SEC record (Florida lead the Eastern Division, at 17-10, followed by Georgia with its 15-12 league record).
TEXAS (#8 in writer's poll; #6 in ANR)
2-1 vs. #16 Texas A&M (11-9 on road; 0-3, 5-4 at home)
Two weeks after dropping the series vs. upstart Kansas, the Longhorns took 2-of-3 from rival Texas A&M – clinching the Big 12 title for UT (which also won midweek vs. Texas Southern, 7-3, and has two games left, both non-league vs. Alabama A&M). If Texas can also win the Big 12 title, they should be in position for a top seed heading into the NCAAs. The Longhorns also should be strongly in the mix for a top-8 seed, as long as they post a solid finish in the conference tournament.
Over the past few days, it has seemed like more college baseball teams (both top-25 and those on the "bubble") have failed to make that key needed statement - with the majority of those squads instead suffering some tough losses during the weekend series. This is an important time of the season, as these games not only affect the usual standings in the polls and RPI – this past weekend's results also help finalize conference regular-season standings, set up teams for seeding/success in conference tournaments, and even factor into the "last-10-games" criteria that is part of the NCAA selection criteria. It's also a tense time for the elite programs that are positioning for spots as the top-8/top-16 seeds, so it's possible that one or two games could (conceivably) be the difference in where a team ends up in the NCAA seedings.
Among the top-25 teams in the NCBWA writers poll, 21 of them were in action this past weekend vs. a lower-ranked team. Only three of those teams – #2 UC Irvine (vs. UOP), #5 Arizona State (vs. Winthrop) and #23 Coastal Carolina (vs. VMI) – managed to sweep their three-game series, with the other 18 losing at least one game during the weekend vs. a lower-seeded team. #11 Arkansas dropped all three games at Alabama, while seven other teams lost their series (1 game to 2): #1 UNC (at N.C. State), #7 Mississippi (vs. Mississippi State), #9 Florida State (a minor upset, at #10 Georgia Tech), #13 Georgia (vs. Vanderbilt), #15 Miami (vs. Bethune-Cookman), #21 Kansas State (vs. Texas Tech) and #24 Oregon State (at Washington). Of the opponents on this list, Georgia Tech is the only lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, while Vanderbilt is on the bubble and Bethune-Cookman is favored to win the MEAC Tournament (and thus get an automatic NCAA berth).
That leaves 10 more top-25 teams that lost one game over the weekend: #3 Rice (vs. UCF), #4 LSU (vs. #12 Florida), #6 Fullerton (vs. #19 Cal Poly), #8 Texas (vs. #16 Texas A&M), #14 Virginia (vs. Duke), #17 Oklahoma (vs. Oklahoma State), #18 TCU (vs. Utah), #20 Clemson (vs. UNC Wilmington), #22 East Carolina (vs. Houston) and #25 Ohio State (vs. Illinois). Some of these opponents - Cal Poly, A&M, Oklahoma State and Illinois - are potential NCAA entrants, but UCF, Duke, Utah, UNCW and Houston likely will not be in the field-of-64.
In the 63 games over the weekend (Fri.-Sun.) featuring at least one top-25 team from the writer's poll, the higher-ranked team won only 57% of the time (36 wins, 27 losses).
Among teams that appear to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble (in terms of their at-large prospects), several put those NCAA postseason hopes at risk. Most notably: fading San Diego went 1-2 vs. visiting San Francisco; Hawaii managed only a split of four games at Fresno State; homestanding New Mexico state won only 1-of-4 vs. San Jose State; South Florida lost 2-of-3 at Notre Dame; UC Riverside won only once at UC Davis; Kent State went 1-2 vs. visiting Akron; USC lost both games at CS Northridge; Auburn was 1-2 at Kentucky (as was New Mexico at Stanford); and Rhode Island went 1-2 at UMass. Of course, some of these teams still could gain entry into the NCAAs by winning their conference tournaments – but their at-large prospects seem to be in doubt at this point.
A handful of bubble teams did emerge from the weekend with some positives (albeit, for some, vs. low-rated opponents), among them: Louisville (2-1 at St. John's); College of Charleston (3-0 at Wofford); Vanderbilt (2-1 at #13 Georgia), Washington State (3-0 at Oregon), Indiana State (3-0 vs. Evansville) and BYU (3-0 vs. UNLV).
With so much inconsistency (or parity, depending on your own interpretation) throughout college baseball, it's possible that 2009 could be a big year for upsets in the NCAAs. Several of the #9-#16 seeds will be more than capable of winning a Super-Regional series on the road – and there certainly could be a College World Series entry (or two) from outside the top-16 seeds.
Here's a look at the top teams in the nation that appear to have the best shot at being the #1 overall seed (or, at least, in the top-4):
NORTH CAROLINA (#1 in writers poll; #1 in CB360's aggregate national ratings/ANR)
1-2 over the weekend, at N.C. State (0-3, 5-2, 4-9)
Heading into this week, UNC appeared to be the odds-on favorite for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, due to playing in a strong and deep conference yet having a favorable schedule over the final nine games of the regular season ("sweepable" ACC series at NC State and BC, plus three midweek games ). The Tar Heels beat Elon (a likely NCAA entrant) in a 15-6 midweek game, but Longwood nearly upset UNC two days later (in a 5-4, 12-inning thriller). UNC took its 37-10 record to Raleigh, for the series vs. a 21-27 Wolfpack team, but their in-state rivals won game-1 (3-0) and the series finale (9-4; UNC won game-2, by a 5-2 score). As a result, the ACC Coastal Division regular-season title still is up-for-grabs – with UNC (18-8-0) holding a narrow lead over Georgia Tech (16-8-1; final series at Duke) and Virginia (15-9-1; finish at Virginia Tech). Barring a total collapse, the Tar Heels likely still will earn a top-8 seed – but they need to get back on the winning track in the upcoming week (vs. Charlotte and in the series at Boston College) in order to remain in the running for the #1 seed ... of course, their showing in the ACC Tournament will provide the final factor for UNC's seeding in the NCAAs.
UC IRVINE (#2 in writers poll and CB360 ANR)
3-0 at the University of the Pacific (11-6, 5-4, 6-5)
The Anteaters – who swept at UOP, thanks to a pair of one-run wins – should hold down the #1 spot in most (if not all) of the updated national polls, and CB360 expects UCI to make a return to the #1 spot in its Aggregate National Ratings (Mike Gillespie's squad was #1 in the April 22 ANR update, then slipped to 4th in late-April before jumping back to #2 last week). Unlike some of the other top teams (namely UNC, Rice, LSU and Texas), Irvine does not have to "worry" about the two-edged-sword nature of a conference tournament (the Big West, along with the Pac-10, do not sponsor postseason conference tournaments). While winning a conference tournament certainly can boost a team's NCAA seeding, many coaches of top teams/regular-season champs might prefer to just stand pat on the strengths of their regular-season "body of work." Although not yet announced on the Big West or UCI websites, it appears that Irvine already has secured the Big West's automatic bid for the NCAAs – thanks to a 17-1 record in conference play (also 37-11 overall). UCI very well could sweep its final eight regular-season games, with five of those matchups coming vs. teams that have been a disappointment this season (but have the talent to knock off the Anteaters): San Diego and UCLA in successive Tuesday games, plus a series at UC Santa Barbara. Irvine also will play next weekend at home vs. a UC Davis team that has posted only three Big West wins this season. Despite entering this past week ranked #7 in the official NCAA RPI – behind UNC, Fullerton, Georgia Tech, Texas, Rice and Miami – UCI ultimately should make a strong case for being seeded in the top-4 (and possibly #1).
RICE (#3 in writers poll and ANR)
2-1 vs. Central Florida (0-5, 10-2, 8-7)
The Owls rallied in the late innings on Sunday to win game-3 (and take the series) from UCF, but Rice also lost earlier in the week to a potential NCAA Tournament team (4-1, vs. Texas State). With East Carolina being the only other Conference USA team with the at-large credentials to make the NCAAs, Rice's closing strength-of-schedule likely will trail that of the nation's other top teams over the next two weeks (the Owls play midweek at Louisiana-Lafayette, followed by a series at UAB and then the CUSA Tournament). It will be interesting to see how much Rice's two losses this week end up dropping the Owls in the polls and the ANR. Look for the Owls to land somewhere in the #4-#6 range in the upcoming APR update – but Rice should end up being a top-8 NCAA seed (assuming a top-2 finish in the CUSA Tournament, which is highly likely for a program that has dominated that postseason event). Rice (15-6) actually still has some work left to clinch the CUSA regular-season title, as ECU (14-7) is one game back in the standings (the Pirates okay host to Memphis next weekend).
ARIZONA STATE (#5 in writers poll and ANR)
3-0 vs. Winthrop (14-3, 10-9, 5-0)
The Sun Devils survived a scare in game-2, but Pat Murphy's squad completed the sweep of the Big South Conference's third-place team Winthrop. A few days earlier, ASU battled through a pair of midweek games (8-7/in 11, 7-6) versus a San Diego team that is scrambling to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. It's been a strange year in the Pac-10 – witness the fact that the league's only other solid NCAA candidate (Oregon State) dropped two at Washington this weekend – and the Sun Devils should be able to close strong, with a home series vs. last-place Oregon, a midweek game at Arizona (non-league) and another home series (vs. UCLA). ASU should be firmly in the mix for a top-4 NCAA seed.
CAL STATE FULLERTON (#4 in writers poll; #4 in ANR)
2-1 at #19 Cal Poly (8-4, 7-3, 4-7)
The Titans nearly went 5-0 this week, with a pair of midweek wins over Arizona (5-2, 8-4) and the series win at top-20 foe Cal Poly. Fullerton steps out of conference next weekend (vs. UCLA; one at home/two on road), followed by a midweek home game vs. Pepperdine and then a home Big West series vs. Long Beach State. All seven of CSF's closing games are vs. programs that are accustomed to playing in the NCAAs (and/or talented enough to contend for an NCAA spot) – but the Titans should be able to stay focused on finishing strong. This week's loss to Cal Poly is a minor blip on Fullerton's bid for a top-4 seed, but that fate may depend more on what UNC, Rice, LSU and Texas do in their conference tournaments.
LOUISIANA STATE (#4 in writer's poll; #8 in ANR)
2-1 vs. #12 Florida (10-1, 4-0, 3-9)
The Tigers have spent several weeks as a #1-ranked team this season – and nobody should fault Paul Mainieri's team for losing the series finale to surging Florida. LSU has a midweek home game vs. Centenary and then will finish the regular-season at SEC Western Division cellar dweller Mississippi State. Similar to UNC and Rice, LSU has yet to lock up its conference regular-season title. The Tigers are 18-9 in the SEC Western Division, followed closely by Alabama (17-9; play next week at Auburn) – fresh of its sweep of Arkansas – and Mississippi (17-10; finish with series at Arkansas). It also would be a nice feather in its cap for LSU to finish with the top overall SEC record (Florida lead the Eastern Division, at 17-10, followed by Georgia with its 15-12 league record).
TEXAS (#8 in writer's poll; #6 in ANR)
2-1 vs. #16 Texas A&M (11-9 on road; 0-3, 5-4 at home)
Two weeks after dropping the series vs. upstart Kansas, the Longhorns took 2-of-3 from rival Texas A&M – clinching the Big 12 title for UT (which also won midweek vs. Texas Southern, 7-3, and has two games left, both non-league vs. Alabama A&M). If Texas can also win the Big 12 title, they should be in position for a top seed heading into the NCAAs. The Longhorns also should be strongly in the mix for a top-8 seed, as long as they post a solid finish in the conference tournament.
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